Another Climate Report, But Who’s Listening?

CSTPR’s media and climate change monitoring work (led by Max Boykoff) was mentioned in a NPR Science Friday program:

Another Climate Report, But Who’s Listening?
Listen to program

The White House released its latest climate report this week, with much the same message as recent IPCC findings—climate change is real, and it’s happening fast. But are Americans listening? Anthony Leiserowitz, director of the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication, and Sheril Kirshenbaum, director of the Energy Poll at the University of Texas, talk about Americans’ attitudes toward climate change—and how green energy is making friends of environmentalists and climate deniers.

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How Grammatical Choice Shapes Media Representations of Climate (Un)certainty

How Grammatical Choice Shapes Media Representations of Climate (Un)certainty
by Adriana Bailey, Lorine Giangola & Maxwell T. Boykoff
Environmental Communication
Volume 8, Issue 2, 2014

Abstract: Although mass media continue to play a key role in translating scientific uncertainty for public discourse, communicators of climate science are becoming increasingly aware of their own role in shaping scientific messages in the news. As an example of how future media research can provide relevant feedback to climate communicators, the present study examines the ways in which grammatical and word choices represent and construct uncertainty in news reporting about the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Qualifying and hedging language and other “epistemic markers” are analyzed in four newspapers during 2001 and 2007: the New York Times and Wall Street Journal from the USA and El País and El Mundo from Spain. Though the US newspapers contained a higher density of epistemic markers and used more ambiguous grammatical constructs of uncertainty than the Spanish newspapers, all four media sources chose similar words when questioning the certainty around climate change. Moreover, the density of epistemic markers in each newspaper either remained the same or increased with time, despite ever-growing scientific agreement that human activities modify global climate. While the US newspapers increasingly adopted IPCC language to describe climate uncertainties, they also exhibited an emerging tendency to construct uncertainty by highlighting differences between IPCC reports or between scientific predictions and observations. The analysis thus helps identify articulations of uncertainty that will shape future media portrayals of climate science across varying cultural and national contexts. Read more …

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Max Boykoff Interviewed on Idaho Public Radio on Media Coverage and Climate Change

The White House released a new National Climate Assessment on Tuesday, May 5th, and immediately the report was the subject of news reports, press releases, and analysis. There was a lot of information for the public to sift through. Idaho Public Radio’s Glenn Mosley spoke with Max Boykoff on the subject of media coverage of climate change. Listen to the program.

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Inside the Greenhouse: Utilizing Media to Communicate Positive Solutions for Climate Change

This Spring 2014, students from CU’s Inside the Greenhouse course, taught by Max Boykoff and Beth Osnes, generated multi-modal compositions on the subject of climate change. Students worked to deepen their understanding of how issues associated with climate change are/can be communicated by analyzing previously created expressions from a variety of media (interactive theatre, film, fine art, performance art, television programming, blogs for examples) and then by creating their own work. The fruits of their creative climate communication labors – their compositions – are now posted on CSTPR’s Inside the Greenhouse Website.

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Fifa Has Bigger Problems Than Corruption Alone

Fifa Has Bigger Problems Than Corruption Alone
by Roger Pielke, Jr.

Soccer Economics
May 7, 2014

For much of the past four years FIFA, the organization which oversees global football and the World Cup, has been dogged by allegations of corruption and poor management.  In 2011, after two members of the FIFA Executive Committee had tried to sell their votes for future World Cup location to undercover reporters, FIFA felt compelled to respond by setting up an internal reform committee to recommend steps to improve the organization’s governance.

That committee, chaired by Professor Mark Pieth of the Basel Institute of Governance, ended its work last year, and issued a hard-hitting, final report last month.

Like many other international sports governance bodies, the Fédération Internationale de Football Association or International Federation of Association Football, is headquartered in Switzerland. Many international organizations have long found the nation to be a favorable location due to its political neutrality, generous tax treatment and hands-off approach to oversight.

For FIFA, the hands-off oversight has arguably allowed mischief to take root. Among the many scandals that have plagued FIFA, the one getting the most attention today is alleged vote-buying and collusion associated with the awarding of the 2018 World Cup to Russia and 2022 World Cup to Qatar. The decision on who gets to host the World Cup is a consequential one. For instance, Qatar has announced $200 billion in new infrastructure projects associated with the 2022 World Cup, including 8 new stadiums.

The decision as to which country gets to host the World Cup is made by FIFA’s inner circle, its 25-member Executive Committee. In 2010 FIFA held votes on the awarding of the 2018 and 2022 World Cups at the same meeting. Later, Sepp Blatter, FIFA’s long-time president, admitted that there was vote trading across the two votes, and that it was a mistake to have made both decisions at the same time.

But vote trading was the least of FIFA’s troubles associated with the World Cup votes. In February it was revealed that the family of a member of FIFA’s Executive Committee in 2010 received $2 million from a Qatari company controlled by a former football official in the months following the vote. On the heels of that revelation we learned that the 10-year old daughter of another member of the FIFA Executive Committee has $3 million deposited into a bank account in her name. The funds allegedly came from the (at the time) president of FC Barcelona (home to Lionel Messi), which is sponsored by Qatari Airlines and the Qatar Foundation.

These allegations are cited in Pieth’s final report, which says that the future integrity of the organization depends a great deal on how it responds: “If FIFA is to emerge from the scandals of recent years it must now produce a convincing and transparent answer to any issues relating to hosting decisions… if allegations are confirmed FIFA must ensure that the consequences are meaningful.“

However, FIFA’s ability to address the World Cup vote scandal may be limited by the fact that most of the recommendations of Pieth’s committee have not been implemented. Further, Pieth observes in his report that “some Members of the Executive Committee have not been sufficiently committed to change.” Read more …

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Climate Change Catastrophes Ahead? Here’s How We Can Prepare

Lisa Dilling was quoted in a NBC News article on the recent National Climate Assessment report.

Climate Change Catastrophes Ahead? Here’s How We Can Prepare
by John Roach, NBC News

Heat waves, droughts, and downpours across the United States are likely to increase according to a White House report released Tuesday — and experts say all we might be able to do now is prepare for what’s to come.

“People have this perception of this being an issue that affects our kids but not us, or affects polar bears in the Arctic but not us, and what this report really brings home is the fact that climate change is affecting us right here, today,” said Katharine Hayhoe, a lead author of National Climate Assessment report.

The report lays out how dramatic changes in weather, from rising heat to too much water on the East Coast and too little water on the West, will likely impact the U.S. in coming decades. Even if human beings were to achieve the impossible and cut off the emission of all greenhouse gases right away, “some additional climate change and related impacts are now unavoidable,” according to the report.

More wildfires. Disease-transmitting insects. Decreased air quality. Damage to roads and bridges. “Climate change threatens human health and well-being in many ways,” says the report.

But there’s plenty governments, businesses, and individual citizens can do to soften the blow, experts said.

The time is now

“I think this National Climate Assessment is the loudest and clearest alarm bell to date signaling the need to take urgent action to combat the threats to Americans from climate change,” John Holdren, Assistant to the President for Science and Technology and Director, Office of Science and Technology Policy, said in a call with reporters.

The report, prepared with input from more than 300 scientists, is required every four years by law. But prior administrations have sometimes taken a pass, and this is only the third report to be released.

“The personal level is that everybody can look out their window and see something about their climate that has changed over the last 5, 10, or 15 years,” Gary Yohe, a professor of economics and environmental studies at Wesleyan University in Middletown, Conn., and a lead author of the report, told NBC News.

Some people notice that birds arrive in their backyards earlier each spring, he said. Others cite more pollen in the air or more frequent downpours and storm surges, or more intense heat waves.

Hayhoe noted that the impacts of climate change depend on location. In the Northeast, for example, the frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased by 71 percent. On the opposite side of the country, drought is becoming a serious concern. “There is no one-size-fits all here on why we need to be worried about climate change,” she said.

Nor, she added, is it straight-forward to tease out the climate change signal from impacts such as heavy downpours, or heat waves and droughts. Rather, “we have a changing climate overlaid with natural weather patterns and natural patterns of variability,” she said.

Preparing for the future

“Some changes can be beneficial over the short run, such as a longer growing season in some regions and a longer shipping season on the Great Lakes,” reads the report’s overview. “But many more are detrimental, largely because our society and its infrastructure were designed for the climate that we have had, not the rapidly changing climate we now have and can expect in the future.”

“The report also talks very clearly about how there are many opportunities to reduce the vulnerability to climate change, to make sure that we adapt successfully to reduce the impact that we are having on climate and at the same time benefit the economy, benefit national security and benefit our own health,” Hayhoe said.

For example, communities can decide to invest money in a new wind farm instead of a new coal fired power plant to generate electricity, and in turn eliminate the release of carbon dioxide, the key planet-warming gas. Given that a power plant lasts for about 30 years, such a decision has real impacts, she said.

The messages in the report on ways people can adapt to climate change and, in turn, lessen the impacts from a changing climate are particularly welcome, according to Lisa Dilling, a fellow of the Center for Science and Technology Policy Research at the University of Colorado at Boulder, who was a review editor of the report.

“There is a need for society to better adapt to climate variability and climate change right now,” Dilling said in an email to NBC News. “And many decisions can be made to lessen the impacts of extremes and other climate events.” For example, investments in carbon-free sources of energy such as solar power, she noted, can help society move past its reliance on fossil fuel sources of energy.

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Updated Figures for April 2014: Media Coverage of Climate Change

Media Monitoring of Climate Change or Global Warming

We monitor fifty sources across twenty-five countries in seven different regions around the world. We assemble the data by accessing archives through the Lexis Nexis, Proquest and Factiva databases via the University of Colorado libraries. These fifty sources are selected through a decision processes involving weighting of three main factors:

  • geographical diversity (favoring a greater geographical range)
  • circulation (favoring higher circulating publications
  • reliable access to archives over time (favoring those accessible consistently for longer periods of time)

World, Australia, Canada, India, New Zealand, United Kingdom, & United States (Updated through April 2014)
Spain (Updated through March 2014)
Japan (Updated through January 2014)

Figure Citations
Nacu-Schmidt, A., McAllister, L., Gifford, L., Daly, M., Boykoff, M., Boehnert, J., Andrews, K., and Wang, X., (2014). World Newspaper Coverage of Climate Change or Global Warming, 2004-2014. Center for Science and Technology Policy Research, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Web. [Date of access.] http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/media_coverage.

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Thoroughbreds Are Running as Fast as They Can

Thoroughbreds Are Running as Fast as They Can
by Roger Pielke, Jr.
FiveThirtyEight

On Saturday, 19 thoroughbreds will once again be off, running in the 140th Kentucky Derby. The Derby calls itself “the greatest two minutes in sport” because that’s more or less how long it takes to win the race, and that hasn’t changed in decades. Since 1949, the time it takes thoroughbreds to run around the 1.25-mile track has averaged 2:02.25, and no winning race time has deviated by more than 3 seconds from this long-term average.

Mark Denny, who studies biomechanics at Stanford University, wrote a 2008 paper that asked, “Are there absolute limits to the speed at which animals can run?” He looked at the statistics of the fastest times each year for the Triple Crown horse races (which include the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes in addition to the Kentucky Derby), three premier greyhound races in England, and elite men’s and women’s athletics at distances of 100 meters to the marathon.

The data reflected remarkable achievements by the fastest horses, dogs and people. Denny fit the data with a statistical model, and then used extreme value theory (since the data was about the best in each sport) to calculate a maximum speed limit.1 Some race times, like the Kentucky Derby’s, have plateaued, while others are still improving, like the men’s 100-meter race. This approach suggests that the fastest time possible for a human in a 100-meter race is 9.48 seconds. Usain Bolt’s world-record time is only 0.10 seconds from the limit.

Denny says his approach tells us “that speed has its limits, but not what accounts for those limits.” There are, however, a few possible explanations for why thoroughbreds may have already hit those limits but humans, for the most part, have not yet plateaued.

One possibility, advanced by Denny and others, is that thoroughbred race times may have leveled off because the narrow genetic diversity of racehorses limits the genetic diversity in the pool of potential thoroughbred champions. Modern thoroughbreds are descendants of a small number of horses (less than 30 in the 18th century), and 95 percent are thought to trace their ancestry to a single horse, The Darley Arabian. Today, there are fewer than 25,000 thoroughbreds born each year in the United States. Compare that with the more than 7 billion people worldwide.3 The size of the human population may simply lead to a greater number of potential athletes with extreme speed. Read more …

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Lisa Dilling and Meaghan Daly Receive New NSF Grant on Climate Adaptation in East Africa

Examining Processes of Knowledge Co-production for Climate Adaptation in East Africa

Lisa Dilling (ENVS), Mara Goldman (Geography), and grad students Meaghan Daly (ENVS) and Eric Lovell (Geog)

National Science Foundation

Abstract: The impacts of climate variability and anticipation of climate change have prompted least-developed countries to compile national adaptation plans and integrate climate change within development activities. There are increasing efforts to disseminate scientific climate data to support adaptation at local scales, but little consideration has been given to how this scientific knowledge interacts with indigenous climate knowledge and customary coping mechanisms. We suggest that persistent barriers to linking knowledge with adaptive actions stem from insufficient attention to understanding the varying criteria that constitute valid knowledge among actors across epistemologies and institutional scales that may enable use of various forms of knowledge. This research aims to understand how knowledge is produced and incorporated by actors across scales and with varying epistemologies, and to understand how power and the processes of co-production affect the salience, credibility and legitimacy of knowledge.  The project will utilize a mixed-method case study design, which will incorporate multiple embedded units of analysis situated at 3 different institutional scales in Tanzania, East Africa.

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The Decline of Tornado Devastation

The Decline of Tornado Devastation
Despite what you might have heard about ‘extreme weather events,’ damage and loss of life from twisters is in retreat.

by Roger A. Pielke Jr.
The Wall Street Journal
April 24, 2014

Excerpt: So far in 2014, the United States has experienced fewer tornadoes than in any year since record-keeping began in 1953, or even before. Greg Carbin, a meteorologist with the Storm Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, has called this “likely the slowest start to tornado activity in any year in modern record, and possibly nearly a century.” But just because tornado activity has declined doesn’t mean that we can let down our guard, as potentially large impacts are always a threat.

verall, however, the good news for residents of the Midwest’s “Tornado Alley” and elsewhere is that over the past six decades America has witnessed a long-term decrease in both property damage and loss of life. That’s the finding that I and Kevin Simmons and Daniel Sutter, two of the nation’s leading tornado experts, have gleaned from studying the data on almost 58,000 tornadoes observed since 1950.

Using estimates collected by the NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center, we used several approaches, including taking inflation into account, to “normalize” historical losses to 2014 dollar values in order to estimate how much damage would occur if tornadoes of the past occurred with today’s levels of population and development.

The nearby chart shows our central estimates. How do we know if they are any good? We performed several independent checks. For instance, we already know which years had exceptionally large property losses: 1953, 1965, 1974 and 2011—and these four years show up clearly in our data set. A more sophisticated check is to compare trends in the incidence of tornadoes with trends in damage. Counts of tornadoes at different strengths can serve as an independent basis for evaluating our methods. Logically, these trends would match up. And once we break the overall data set into a series of shorter periods to take into account changes in the way meteorologists have tracked tornadoes over time, the trends do match, supporting our approach.

Certainly the potential for tornado damage in the U.S. remains strong. Just three years ago, the country was wracked by a series of particularly destructive storms, including a tornado outbreak in late April 2011 that killed more than 300 people across seven states, and one in May that devastated Joplin, Mo. That year was one of just three since 1950 with more than $25 billion in damage, and the 560 deaths in 2011 were the most fatalities since 1925, when 794 people died.

The average annual U.S. property losses caused by tornadoes, from 1950 to 2013, is $5.9 billion in today’s dollars. However, for the first half of the data set (1950-81), the annual average loss was $7.6 billion, and in the second half (1982-2013), it was $4.1 billion—a drop of almost 50%.

Does the substantial decline in average annual damage mean that there have actually been fewer tornadoes? Not necessarily. The U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded recently that the quality of the available data on tornado frequency and intensity makes drawing conclusions about long-term trends problematic: “There is low confidence in observed trends in small spatial-scale phenomena such as tornadoes and hail.” Read more …

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