Webcast now Available for Noontime Seminar on Probabilities of Terrorist Events

Webcast now Available for November 6 Noontime Seminar on Probabilities of Terrorist Events

Estimating the Historical and Future Probabilities of Large Terrorist Events
by Aaron Clauset, Department of Computer Science, University of Colorado Boulder

Watch the webcast

Abstract: Quantities with right-skewed distributions are ubiquitous in complex social systems, including political conflict, economics and social networks, and these systems sometimes produce extremely large events. For instance, the 9/11 terrorist events produced nearly 3000 fatalities, nearly six times more than the next largest event in the past 40 years. But, was this enormous loss of life statistically unlikely given modern terrorism’s historical record? Accurately estimating the probability of such an event is complicated by the large fluctuations in the empirical distribution’s upper tail.

In this talk, I present a generic statistical algorithm for making such judgements, which combines semi-parametric models of tail behavior and a non-parametric bootstrap. Applied to a global database of terrorist events, the method estimates the worldwide historical probability of observing at least one 9/11-sized or larger event since 1968 to be 11–35%. These results remain even when we condition on global variations in economic development, domestic versus international events, the type of weapon used and a truncated history that stops at 1998. I will also show results for using this technique to make a data-driven statistical forecast of at least one similar event over the next decade. To close, I will briefly discuss the applicability of this technique to other complex systems with heavy-tailed distributions of event sizes.

Joint work with Ryan Woodard (ETH Zurich).

Biography: Aaron Clauset received a PhD in Computer Science from the University of New Mexico and a BS in Physics from Haverford College, and was an Omidyar Fellow at the prestigious Santa Fe Institute.

Clauset is an internationally recognized expert on complex networks, complex systems, the statistics of rare events, global patterns in terrorism and war. His work has appeared in prestigious scientific venues like Nature, Science, JACM, STOC, AAAI, SIAM Review, Physical Review Letters, and the Journal of Conflict Resolution, and has been covered in the popular press by the Wall Street Journal, The Economist, Discover Magazine, New Scientist, Miller-McCune, the Boston Globe and The Guardian.

Posted in Announcements, Events | Leave a comment

Just Updated: Media and Climate Change Figures

Just Updated
Media & Climate Change Figures:
World, Australia, Canada, India, New Zealand, UK, & US

Updated through October 2013
Max Boykoff and Maria Mansfield first assembled this figure while conducting research at the University of Oxford, Environmental Change Institute. Boykoff is now here at the University of Colorado-Boulder, and Mansfield is at Exeter University in the UK. They continue to update this figure on a monthly basis as a resource for journalists, researchers, and others who may be interested in tracking these trends. The chart above contains data through the end of the previous month.

This figure was first presented at a side-event at the UN Conference of Parties 14 (COP14) in Poznan, Poland for a panel entitled ‘Overcoming the communication deficit: encouraging climate change debate in the Global South’. This 5 December 2008 panel was sponsored by PANOS and the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED).

Boykoff and Mansfield assembled the data set through three main search engines – Lexis Nexis, Factiva, and ABI/Inform. The Boolean string used was ‘climate change OR global warming’, and the tracking of month-by-month trends began in January 2004. This starting point was due in part to data availability, where a number of these newspaper archives are only available from that point forward.

Due to sampling, the relative trends across regions are more useful than absolute numbers in the figure. Overall, Boykoff and Mansfield sought to include newspapers that were influential – in circulation and influence on policy/public opinion – as well as geographically diverse. Read more …

Posted in Announcements | Leave a comment

Max Boykoff quoted in a ClimateWare on media and climate change

Max Boykoff quoted in ClimateWire

How media pushed climate change ‘pause’ into the mainstream
by Stephanie Paige Ogburn

Hot topic’ got warmed in ‘conservative circles’

Even the Union of Concerned Scientists, whose position on global warming sits in the human-caused camp, called IPCC’s forthcoming explanation of the pause a “hot topic” in a blog post on what to look for in the report.

IPCC scientists discussing the pause said it was mostly media attention that made it “hot” in the first place.

Initial attention to the pause came from those who have long questioned the underpinnings of climate science.

In 2009, the issue was highlighted in congressional testimony by William Happer, a physicist and climate contrarian at Princeton University. Around that time, it made the rounds in climate skeptic blogs and was mentioned in a column by conservative writer George Will.

It’s not uncommon for issues like the pause to be championed in media subcultures and eventually bubble up into the mainstream surface, said Max Boykoff, a professor at the University of Colorado, Boulder, who researches how climate change is portrayed in the media.

“Particularly in that case in the global warming pause, that had been cropping up in some of the conservative circles first and is something that got grabbed on to more in the mainstream media,” Boykoff said. Read more …

Posted in In the News | Leave a comment

Roger Pielke, Jr. on FIFA reform

Roger Pielke, Jr. was referenced in the news regarding the 2013 Play the Game conference on FIFA Reform

FIFA Reform – is it producing results?
playthegame.org
by Marcus Hoy

Has football’s world governing body implemented any meaningful reforms since the much-criticised bidding process for the 2018 and 2022 FIFA World Cups? A top FIFA official and some of the organisation’s most prominent critics shared a platform at the Play the Game conference to address this question.

Since FIFA controversially awarded hosting rights to Russia and Qatar in late 2010, three reports have proposed changes to its internal structure. The global anti-corruption group Transparency International, FIFA’s Independent Governance Committee (IGC) and a report by University of Basel Professor Mark Pieth who is also outgoing chair of the IGC have all issued recommendations in areas such as transparency, democratic reform, age and term limits of officials and salary disclosure.

While agreeing that FIFA has taken a few important steps, Roger Pielke, Jr. of the University of Colorado’s Center for Science and Technology told Play the Game that 42 out of 59 recommendations contained in the three reports had not yet been implemented. Pielke, who presented his full findings to Play the Game in the days leading up to the 2013 conference, used a newly-developed empirical “scorecard” to reach his conclusions. Read more …

Pielke gave a presentation at the conference on “An Evaluation of the FIFA Reform Process”. View the slides of his presentation [pdf].

Posted in Events, In the News | Leave a comment

New CSTPR Publication by Max Boykoff and Shawn Olson

New CSTPR Publication by Max Boykoff and Shawn Olson

‘Wise contrarians’: A keystone species in contemporary climate science, politics and policy

Boykoff, M. T. and S. K. Olson (2013), ‘Wise contrarians’: a keystone species in contemporary climate science, politics and policy. Celebrity Studies 4 (3) 276-291, doi: 10.1080/19392397.2013.831618, Published October 25.

Abstract: In the 1980s, celebrity climate contrarians, which we might understand as a kind of ‘keystone species’ or ‘charismatic megafauna’, emerged through resistance to dominant interpretations of scientific evidence, and through divergent views regarding what are the best ways to respond to climate threats. Our research here examines the growth pathways of these beings through historical accounts of the ‘Wise Use’ movements rooted in the United States (US) West, as well as interview data and participant observations at the 2011 Heartland Institute’s Sixth International Conference on Climate Change, and through tracking of media coverage of climate change and contrarian think tanks over the last 25 years. This contribution helps to better understand celebrity climate contrarians embedded in countermovement activities through a threefold analysis: of the motivations that prop up these contrarian stances, such as ideological or evidentiary disagreement to the orthodox views of science (also known as scientific consensus); the drive to fulfil the perceived desires of special interests (for example, carbon-based industry); and the exhilaration from self-perceived academic martyrdom and the more general desire for notoriety. In these ways, celebrity is a vehicle for influence, and influence is vital to decision-making within the dynamic architectures of contemporary climate science, politics and policy. Read more …

Posted in New Publications | Leave a comment

Australia’s carbon debate mirrors global follies

New publication by Roger Pielke, Jr. in Lowy Institute’s The Interpreter

Australia’s carbon debate mirrors global follies
by Roger Pielke, Jr.

Australia’s longest-running tragedy is starting a new season with a new cast but the same familiar follies. Of course I am talking about Australian climate policy.

Before Julia Gillard was deposed she had announced that Australia’s carbon price, which had been implemented as a tax (following her pre-election promise not to institute a tax), would be linked with Europe’s emissions trading scheme by 2015, cutting almost $20 from the per-tonne price of carbon that had been so hard won, leaving it in the low single digits.

Prime Minister Abbott, who had campaigned on getting rid of the remaining price on carbon, takes office with the Senate and its balance of power resting with Labor and the Greens, and thus standing in his way. He has threatened to call a double-dissolution election if the Senate does not go along with what he sees as a strong electoral mandate to get rid of the carbon price.

With Abbott leading the Coalition and Bill Shorten now leading Labor, the new players are acting out a familiar script. Here I run through some numbers updating my 2011 analysis of Austalian climate policy and I conclude that despite the new cast, Australian climate policy remains more farce than tragedy. Australia remains a bellwether of international climate politics. Consequently, its climate policy debates have significance far beyond the nation’s borders, so I will try to place the Australian experience into such a larger context. Read more …

Posted in New Publications | Leave a comment

Call for applications: CU Boulder Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre Internship Program

CALL FOR APPLICATIONS
CU Boulder Red Cross/Red Crescent
Climate Centre Internship Program

Applicants are sought from Master’s degree and Ph.D. students for placement in IFRC regional field offices in Southern and East Africa for a period of approximately 3 months.

Students will design their own program of work in conjunction with their CU Boulder advisor and a RC/RC CC supervisor. The RC/RC CC supervisor will liaise with specific IFRC field offices to identify potential projects and placements. Projects can encompass, but are not limited to, topics such as the use of scientific information in decision making, communication of probability and uncertainty, perceptions of risk, and characterizing vulnerability and adaptive capacity.

Application Deadline: November 1, 2013. Click here to apply.

Posted in Announcements | Leave a comment

Max Boykoff’s media and climate change work referenced in Mother Jones

Max Boykoff’s media and climate change work referenced in Mother Jones

4 Reasons You Should Worry About Another Sandy
One year after the destruction, here’s what we know about climate change and storms

by Chris Mooney

One year ago, when Superstorm Sandy devastated much of New Jersey and New York City, the event sparked an intense national discussion about an issue that had gone mysteriously un-discussed during the presidential campaign: climate change. According to research by media scholar Max Boykoff of the University of Colorado, there was actually more media coverage of climate change in leading U.S. newspapers following Sandy than there was following the recent release of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report.

Why? According to NASA researchers, Sandy’s particular track made it a 1-in-700 year storm event. It was, to put it mildly, meteorologically suspicious.

So now, with a year’s distance and a lot of thought and debate, what can we say about climate change and Sandy—and hurricanes in general? A lot, as it turns out. Read more …

Posted in In the News | Leave a comment

Roger Pielke, Jr. quoted in Philly Inquirer on extreme weather

Roger Pielke, Jr. quoted in Philly Inquirer on extreme weather

Long-term forecast sees more-damaging storms
by Anthony R. Wood and Sandy Bauers

The historic cyclone that made landfall on this date last year was so powerful and devastating that it was designated a “superstorm,” had its name retired, and entered the tropical storm hall of fame.

But hurricane experts fear that something far worse than Sandy, blamed for $50 billion in damage, is brewing. In the next two decades, the nation could experience a $500 billion storm.

The sea level is rising, and global warming might affect future storms. But even if the world’s temperature stops rising before you finish this paragraph, hurricanes far more damaging than Sandy are all but a certainty, they say.

Despite unprecedented forecasting, monitoring, and warning abilities, and a record period of hurricanes avoiding landfall, the disaster remains one of the nation’s most robust growth industries, with almost unlimited potential. Read more …

Posted in In the News | Leave a comment

Roger Pielke, Jr. referenced in a Play the Game article on sports policy

Roger Pielke, Jr. referenced in a Play the Game article on sports policy

Brazilian and FIFA top people engage in debates at Play the Game 2013
Brazil’s Deputy Minister of Sport Luis Fernandes is ready to debate with critics of the country’s mega-events this Thursday at Play the Game 2013

The challenges for a huge nation struggling to consolidate its democracy while hosting some of the world’s most demanding and expensive global events have become very visible in Brazil within the past years.

Mass demonstrations against corruption, targeting not only domestic issues, but also FIFA and the World Cup. Harsh words from FIFA’s top administrator against the host country because of delays. Long-lasting debacles over prohibition of beer sale on World Cup stadia. The Rio mayor saying it is a shame that his city must host the Olympics.

And this week a surprising legal action against FIFA from Brazil’s public prosecutors who want more than 100 million US-dollars reimbursed for temporary structures at stadia for the Confederations Cup.

The popular and political turbulence may set a new benchmark for such events: A benchmark by which nations have open discussions about the events already in the bidding process, and by which the big sports organisations show much more concern with democratic and social legacy of their billion-dollar events. Read more …

Posted in In the News | Leave a comment