American Geophysical Union Fall 2013 Meeting:
The Dynamics of Vulnerability and Implications for Climate Change Adaptation: Lessons from Urban Water Management
 by Lisa Dilling

Thursday, December 12th
2:10 PM – 2:25 PM

NH43D-03. The Dynamics of Vulnerability and Implications for Climate Change Adaptation: Lessons from Urban Water Management
 by Lisa Dilling

Authors: Lisa Dilling, Meaghan Daly, William Travis, Olga Wilhelmi, Roberta Klein, Doug Kenney, Andrea J. Ray, and Kathleen Miller

Session: NH43D. NH43D. Climate Change Effects on Natural Hazards: Science, Communication and Policy I

Abstract: Recent reports and scholarship have suggested that adapting to current climate variability may represent a “no regrets” strategy for adapting to climate change. Filling “adaptation deficits” and other approaches that rely on addressing current vulnerabilities are of course helpful for responding to current climate variability, but we find here that they are not sufficient for adapting to climate change. First, following a comprehensive review and unique synthesis of the natural hazards and climate adaptation literatures, we advance six reasons why adapting to climate variability is not sufficient for adapting to climate change: 1) Vulnerability is different at different levels of exposure; 2) Coping with climate variability is not equivalent to adaptation to longer term change; 3) The socioeconomic context for vulnerability is constantly changing; 4) The perception of risk associated with climate variability does not necessarily promote adaptive behavior in the face of climate change; 5) Adaptations made to short term climate variability may reduce the flexibility of the system in the long term; and 6) Adaptive actions may shift vulnerabilities to other parts of the system or to other people. Instead we suggest that decision makers faced with choices to adapt to climate change must consider the dynamics of vulnerability in a connected system– how choices made in one part of the system might impact other valued outcomes or even create new vulnerabilities. Furthermore we suggest that rather than expressing climate change adaptation as an extension of adaptation to climate variability, the research and practice communities would do well to articulate adaptation as an imperfect policy, with tradeoffs and consequences and that decisions be prioritized to preserve flexibility be revisited often as climate change unfolds.

We then present the results of a number of empirical studies of decision making for drought in urban water systems in the United States to understand: a) the variety of actions taken; b) the limitations of actions available to water managers; and c) the effectiveness of actions taken to date. Time permitting, we briefly present the results of 3 in-depth case studies of drought response and current perception of preparedness with respect to future drought and climate change among urban water system managers. We examine the role of governance, system connectivity, public perceptions and other factors in driving decision making and outcomes. More information.

Webcast Now Available for Noontime Seminar on Political Extremism

Passion Without Understanding: Political Extremism is Supported by an Illusion of Understanding
by Philip Fernbach, Leeds School of Business, University of Colorado

Watch the webcast

Abstract: People often hold extreme political attitudes about complex policies. We hypothesized that people typically know less about such policies than they think they do (the illusion of explanatory depth) and that polarized attitudes are enabled by simplistic causal models. Asking people to explain policies in detail both undermined the illusion of explanatory depth and led to attitudes that were more moderate (Experiments 1 and 2). Although these effects occurred when people were asked to generate a mechanistic explanation, they did not occur when people were instead asked to enumerate reasons for their policy preferences (Experiment 2). Finally, generating mechanistic explanations reduced donations to relevant political advocacy groups (Experiment 3). The evidence suggests that people’s mistaken sense that they understand the causal processes underlying policies contributes to political polarization.

Biography: Phil Fernbach is an assistant professor of marketing in the Leeds School of Business. He holds a Ph.D. from Brown University in cognitive science and a B.A. from Williams College where he studied philosophy. His research interests span many areas of consumer behavior including causal reasoning, probability judgment, financial decision-making, and moral judgment. His research has been published in outlets such as the Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, Psychological Science, the Journal of Consumer Research, and Cognition, and has been profiled in media outlets like ABC News, the Wall Street Journal and the Boston Globe. Prior to pursuing his Ph.D., Dr. Fernbach worked with consumer goods companies as a strategy consultant for two boutique firms in Boston.