Ogmius, Newsletter of CSTPR is Now Available

This issue includes:

Ogmius Exchange on the 2013 Colorado Floods

Research Highlight

Center News

  • Roger Pielke Testifies before U.S. House Committee on Science, Space and Technology, Subcommittee on Environment
  • Max Boykoff Figure Used By CNN
  • Max Boykoff Helps the New York Times Assess Its Climate Change Coverage
  • Roger Pielke Launches New Research Program on the Science, Technology, Policy and Politics of Sport

Graduate Student News

  • Meaghan Daly and Lisa Dilling Receive New USAID Grant
  • Shawn Olson and Max Boykoff Paper Referenced In Guardian Article
  • Jessica Weinkle Awarded Ph.D.
  • Jessica Weinkle, Ryan Maue and Roger Pielke, Jr. Paper Referenced In Washington Post

Read more …

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CSTPR Briefing #27 is Now Available

In March 2006, the Center launched the first issue of a new email briefing about its science policy work sent to Washington, DC decision makers. Click here to view the latest issue of the Center’s briefing.

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Wheelmen: A Book Review

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Roger Pielke, Jr. now has a book review out of Wheelmen by Reed Albergotti and Vanessa O’Connell.

Excerpt: Much has already been written about the fall of Lance Armstrong. More books, movies and television specials will no doubt follow. But whether you are a cycling enthusiast or just curious, an outstanding place to start is Wheelmen by Reed Albergotti and Vanessa O’Connell, both reporters with the Wall Street Journal.

Wheelmen tries hard not to be a “book just about Lance Armstrong,” but instead to paint a “picture of a multi-national conspiracy that yielded its many participants hundreds of millions of dollars over the course of a twenty-four year sweep of time.” The book only partially succeeds in keeping that broader focus, partly because Armstrong is such a compellingly awful person. Were he invented as a fictional character in a novel, the depth of his callousness, greed and megalomania would be probably dismissed as unrealistic.

The authors also seek to tell a “complete, objective, and nuanced story.” Here they mostly succeed, especially with respect to the latter two aims, but they leave several loose ends (described below) that may or may not be resolved in further investigations or legal proceedings. Wheelmen is very well written and researched, and clearly the product of years of investigative reporting which allowed the rapid production of such a high quality book.

The arc of the story is well known. Lance Armstrong emerged as a young professional cyclist in the 1990s with some promise, but who had been held back by a bad temperament. He was diagnosed with testicular cancer which spread throughout his body. After beating the odds and being declared cancer-free, Armstrong returned to cycling in a triumphant manner, ultimately winning the Tour de France seven times in a row while founding the Livestrong cancer charity. Read more …

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Climate Change Press’ Pseudo Boom

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Max Boykoff’s climate change and media coverage work was referenced in a Columbia Journalism Review article:

Climate change press’ pseudo boom
The Daily Climate reports a 30-percent spike in global warming coverage during 2013; social scientists disagree that the figure signals a rebound

by Alexis Sobel Fitts

Last week The Daily Climate released the its annual review of climate change coverage—a tally of major stories, by publication and topic, that the news service aggregated for readers over the course of 2013. The Daily Climate’s aggregation gives its readers “a broad sampling” of the day’s stories on climate change (as in, it’s not meant to be a comprehensive tracking), so the rundown isn’t meant to be statistically significant.

Still, the differences in the numbers year-by-year offer a broad overview of coverage and interesting subject and publication breakdowns. Though the last few years have seen diminishing coverage of global warming in the press, according to the Daily Climate’s Douglas Fischer, 2013 saw a jump in coverage of about 30 percent. In 2013 the Daily Climate’s staff aggregated about 24,000 news articles, which, while not 2007’s high of almost 29,000 stories, is a big jump from the 18,546 pieces the site posted in 2012.

Beyond the uptick in overall coverage, the figures showed, surprisingly, that most publications were increasing coverage of climate change and more journalists are covering the subject (8,825 to be exact, a 23-percent jump from 2012.) In fact, The New York Times, whose coverage dropped 10 percent in 2013 after dismantling its green desk was the only major publisher to have coverage drop:

Most major outlets gave climate and energy issues far more ink in 2013 than 2012: Bloomberg News was up 133 percent, the Globe and Mail doubled its reporting, USA Today boosted its effort 48 percent and stories in the Wall Street Journal, Sydney Morning Herald and the Financial Post each were up 40 percent, according to The Daily Climate’s archives.

Though it would be tempting to interpret these numbers, like several news organizations have, as signaling a rejuvenation of climate change reporting, the numbers don’t mesh with the work of social scientists. At the University of Colorado, Max Boykoff, who since 2000 has tracked climate coverage in the top five newspapers in the United States—The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, USA Today, the Los Angeles Times, and The Washington Post—found a drop in coverage in 2013. And Robert Brulle, a social scientist at Drexel University who monitors climate coverage on television news, said his preliminary data (measuring through the end of November 2013) found 30 stories, just a single story more than in 2012, which Brulle said was “statistically just a write off.”  Read more …

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Now Updated for 2013: Media Coverage of Climate Change Figures

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These figures track newspaper coverage of climate change or global warming in newspapers across the world. Now updated through December 2013.

World, Australia, Canada, India, New Zealand, United Kingdom, & United States and recently added Spain

Max Boykoff and Maria Mansfield first assembled this figure while conducting research at the University of Oxford, Environmental Change Institute. Boykoff is now here at the University of Colorado-Boulder, and Mansfield is at Exeter University in the UK. They continue to update this figure on a monthly basis as a resource for journalists, researchers, and others who may be interested in tracking these trends. The chart above contains data through the end of the previous month. This figure was first presented at a side-event at the UN Conference of Parties 14 (COP14) in Poznan, Poland for a panel entitled ‘Overcoming the communication deficit: encouraging climate change debate in the Global South’. This 5 December 2008 panel was sponsored by PANOS and the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED). Boykoff and Mansfield assembled the data set through three main search engines – Lexis Nexis, Factiva, and ABI/Inform. The Boolean string used was ‘climate change OR global warming’, and the tracking of month-by-month trends began in January 2004. This starting point was due in part to data availability, where a number of these newspaper archives are only available from that point forward. Due to sampling, the relative trends across regions are more useful than absolute numbers in the figure. Overall, Boykoff and Mansfield sought to include newspapers that were influential – in circulation and influence on policy/public opinion – as well as geographically diverse. Read more …

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Climate coverage soars in 2013, spurred by energy, weather

http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/images/prometheus/naidoo.jpgMax Boykoff’s media and climate change research highlighted in Daily Climate article

Climate coverage soars in 2013, spurred by energy, weather
by Douglas Fischer

Niche journalism

A growing universe of niche and mostly online publications such as Inside Climate also fueled the overall rise in climate coverage, media experts and the Daily Climate’s database suggest.

“Our work infiltrated in ways we never dreamed of,” Sassoon said. “I can’t say that our work has had a big influence on the uptick in the raw number of climate stories. But it is pretty evident to us that we’ve changed the quality and the substance of the national discourse.”

But that metric – how or whether the uptick in coverage has changed public opinion on climate change – is far more difficult to assess.

“When you look at public opinion data, it’s still the nightly news, believe it or not. That’s still the single biggest driver,” said Robert Brulle, a social scientist at Drexel University who monitors climate coverage and has spent time plumbing the depths of the Daily Climate’s archives.

Brulle’s tracking of TV news shows climate coverage was stable last year, with nightly news at ABC, NBC and CBS airing 30 stories, compared to 29 in 2012.

Nightly news’ impact

Brulle also works with media watchers at the University of Colorado who track climate change coverage in major news newspapers worldwide. That team’s data show a decline in coverage among the top five newspapers in the United States.

But those trackers, unlike The Daily Climate’s aggregation, count a story only if the words “global warming” or “climate change” appear.

“So a story all about the politics of Keystone, or Bill McKibben (founder of 350.org) and his struggles with the White House, aren’t going to show up in our search,” Brulle said.

Those stories would be picked up by the Daily Climate’s team of part-time researchers, who scour the web twice daily. Read more …

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Emissions Impossible: United Kingdom and Australia Far From Decarbonization Targets

http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/images/prometheus/breakthrough2.jpgEmissions Impossible
United Kingdom and Australia Far From Decarbonization Targets

by Roger Pielke, Jr.

After initially reviewing the ambitious emissions reductions targets in three countries – the United Kingdom, Japan, and Australia – Roger Pielke, Jr. returns to the numbers and parses each nation’s “success.” In two of the scenarios, the UK and Australia, reduction targets, again, hardly seem realistic at this point. Only the United Kingdom remains to deal explicitly with what will be an inevitable failure of target setting. Australia is halfway there and Japan used the occasion of Fukushima to justify a climate policy reset. As long-term trends in the energy economy suggest, decarbonization targets are as fanciful as ever.

While I was working on The Climate Fix I published several peer-reviewed articles on climate policies in the United Kingdom, Japan, and Australia. In recent months I have updated these analyses and will summarize the updates here.

United Kingdom

In my 2009 paper (here, open access) on the emissions reduction targets mandated by the UK Climate Change Act, I wrote:

Given the magnitude of the challenge and the pace of action, it would not be too strong a conclusion to suggest that the Climate Change Act has failed even before it has gotten started. The Climate Change Act does have a provision for the relevant minister to amend the targets and timetable, but only for certain conditions. Failure to meet the targets is not among those conditions. It seems likely that the Climate Change Act will have to be revisited by Parliament or simply ignored by policy makers. Achievement of its targets does not appear to be a realistic option.

In a recent update to this analysis I wrote:

If the UK is to hit its 2022 emissions target, then assuming a 2 percent annual GDP growth implies a rate of decarbonization of the economy of 4.4 percent per year over the next 9 years (for 1 percent annual GDP growth it is 3.3 percent and for 3 percent GDP growth it is 5.4 percent). Since the Climate Change Act was passed in 2008 the UK economy has actually decarbonized at a rate of 1.1 percent per year.

The magnitude of the challenge can be seen in the graph at the top of this post, which shows how much carbon-free energy the UK would need if it is to meet the 2022 targets of the Climate Change Act. Even though the proportion of carbon-free energy in 2012 is the highest since 1965, that proportion would have to more than double in less than a decade while retiring an equivalent amount of coal (i.e., almost all of it). Read more …

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CSTPR Alum Joel Gratz in The New York Times

CSTPR Alum Joel Gratz in The New York Times

In Pursuit of Powder? Tips for Finding It
by Cindy Hirschfeld

It’s every skier’s dream: to arrive at a resort just after a good storm, take one of the first lift rides up and ply delightfully fresh, powdery tracks. The reality, though, is that most of us can’t drop everything to chase storms. We have to plan a ski trip in advance. That means the odds of finding good snow, let alone a powder day (often defined as six or more inches of new snow), requires some strategizing.

The simplest trick (other than forking over a lot of money for a snowcat or heli-skiing trip, and even that’s no guarantee) is to pick a resort known for receiving prodigious amounts of snow.

But start talking to meteorologists and others who track snowfall, and it turns out it’s not so simple. The vagaries of mountain weather mean that snow conditions in a couple of months are nearly impossible to predict accurately.

“I really hate planning trips too far in the future, because you never know what’s going to happen,” said Joel Gratz, a Boulder, Colo.-based meteorologist and co-founder of the opensnow.com website, which specializes in ski-targeted forecasting. “Hope isn’t in my vocabulary.” Read more …

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Winter Issue of Ethics, Policy and Environment is Now Out

The winter issue (16.3) of Ethics, Policy, & Environment is now out (co-edited by CSTPR’s Benjanim Hale and George Mason University’s Andrew Light.

This issue includes a Target article by Mark Sagoff, with commentaries from Rachel Fredericks, Carl Safina, Simon James and others, as well as feature articles on climate justice, conservation through commodification, and precautionary principle. Read more …

What Does Environmental Protection Protect?
by Mark Sagoff

Commentaries
Sagoff on Ecosystems as Self-Organizing Systems
by Rachel Fredericks

Mark Sagoff Should Plead Ignorance
by Carl Safina

Cherished Places and Ecosystem Services
by Simon P. James

Complexity Should not be Construed as Confusion
by Harvey Brockman & Tamara Hochstrasser

Environmental Protection and Affection in East Africa
by Abe Goldman, Jaclyn Hall, Michael Binford & Joel Hartter

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Strong tornadoes not linked to climate change, experts say

Roger Pielke, Jr. was quoted in The Oklahoman News on tornadoes and climate change.

Strong tornadoes not linked to climate change, experts say
At a U.S. House of Representatives hearing, researchers said there is no evidence linking severe weather events to climate change, despite frequent claims to the contrary.

by Chris Casteel

No evidence exists that climate change has led to more tornadoes or stronger ones, experts said Wednesday at a House hearing exploring the links between global warming and severe weather events.

“Tornadoes in the United States have not increased in frequency, intensity or normalized damage since 1950,” said Roger Pielke Jr., the director of the Center of Science and Technology Policy Research at the University of Colorado.

“And based on research we’ve done, there’s some evidence in fact that they’ve actually declined — the strongest tornadoes.”

Pielke was one of three researchers from U.S. universities who testified before a House Science, Space and Technology subcommittee about severe weather and climate change. The Republican-controlled subcommittee sought to debunk oft-cited claims that climate change has contributed to severe droughts and storms in recent years.

Two of the witnesses, Pielke and University of Alabama researcher John Christy, have been criticized by some environmentalists for their views on climate change. Both dismissed any link between climate change and hurricanes, droughts, tornadoes and floods. Read more …

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